The Coalition of the Willing: Poland’s Role and Red Lines

A new phase of support for Ukraine is emerging, and Poland is right in the middle of it. The idea of a "coalition of the willing" - a group of nations committed to backing Ukraine beyond the constraints of NATO - has gained momentum after being announced by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. European leaders, led by the UK and France, have rallied around the initiative, emphasizing that Western countries must not only support Ukraine but also possibly defend it militarily in the long term. But what does this mean for Poland?

For Warsaw, the concept of a coalition outside NATO structures presents both opportunities and risks. Poland has been one of Ukraine’s most committed allies - providing military aid, taking in millions of refugees, and recently advocating for tougher EU and NATO policies against Russia. That being said, direct military involvement remains a red line that Poland refuses to cross.

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has made it clear: Poland will stand with Ukraine but will not send troops into combat. The reasoning is straightforward. A Polish military presence in Ukraine would be a game-changer - and not in a good way. But for Poland, the stakes are even higher. With a border shared with both Belarus and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, any escalation risks immediate security consequences at home. Russia’s state media has already painted Poland as an aggressor, and sending troops would only reinforce the Kremlin’s anti-Polish propaganda while increasing the chance of direct confrontation.

Instead, Poland’s role in this coalition will likely focus on ramping up military aid, training Ukrainian forces, and increasing economic pressure on Russia. Warsaw has already pledged tanks, fighter jets, and air defence systems, making it one of the top contributors to Ukraine’s war effort. The next step? Ensuring that any future peace deal does not leave Ukraine vulnerable to another Russian assault.

The NATO factor remains crucial, especially for the Polish Ministry of National Defence led by Kosiniak-Kamysz, the Polish People’s Party leader, and Tusk’s coalition partner. Poland is a key player in the alliance, but NATO’s official stance is that its troops will not engage in Ukraine. If the coalition of the willing moves toward a more aggressive stance, Poland will have to navigate carefully to avoid undermining its position within NATO.

Then there’s the political landscape at home. Public opinion in Poland is strongly pro-Ukraine, but sending troops would be a far more divisive issue. The current government, led by Civic Platform, must balance its commitment to Ukraine with domestic concerns. Sending troops to Ukraine would undermine the government’s core campaign narrative centered on security and stability - slogans like “Safe Poland” have dominated since 2023. The last thing Tusk wants is to give opposition parties ammunition to claim that Poland is being dragged into a war.

Strategically, Poland has its own defence priorities. Strengthening its eastern border and bolstering NATO’s presence remain top concerns. Committing troops to Ukraine would stretch Poland’s resources thin at a time when its military modernization efforts are still underway.

So, will Poland be part of the coalition of the willing? Absolutely. But on its own terms. Warsaw will continue to provide weapons, training, and humanitarian aid. It will push for tougher sanctions and increased Western support. But when it comes to direct military involvement, Poland’s message remains firm: supporting Ukraine is one thing, but escalating the conflict is another.