Three years after the 2021 coup in Myanmar that saw the deposition of the National League for Democracy's government by the Tatmadaw (Myanmar Armed Forces), junta forces are showing signs of struggle battling against rebel forces. Last year, an alliance led by three rebel armies, called the Three Brotherhood alliance, captured a notable amount of land near the border with China. A year later, rebel forces continue to drive junta forces from the economically vital borderlands and are now fixing their eyes on moving further into the very heart of the country. Additionally, a few rebel forces hope to capitalize on the recent momentum and begin a push toward Mandalay. Mandalay is the second largest city in the country, holding a lot of symbolic significance as the old royal capital of Burma. The capital city of Naypyidaw lies 300km away from Mandalay.
Initially, the Three Brotherhood Alliance was backed by China, as the alliance cracked down on extensive border crime that was going unchecked by the Junta. However, Beijing continues to view the Junta as the best solution to the increasing concern of instability in the country. China is also concerned about the ties the alliance shared with the U.S.-backed parallel National Unity Government (NUG) – a government in exile formed by lawmakers and members of parliament ousted by the 2021 coup – and the hostile ideological positions of certain rebel groups. Beijing fears that any collapse of the Junta would bring great turmoil to the country, which would endanger trade and investments in the region. In addition, Beijing believes that great turmoil in Myanmar would benefit China's rivals, specifically the U.S. and Japan.
With the recent rebel gains, China has responded by sealing the border between the two nations and shutting off vital imports to territory held under rebel control - a move hoping to dissuade the Three Brotherhood Alliance from making any further territorial advances. So far, the decision to block imports has led to at least one rebel group in the region withdrawing from fighting.
In late September, the Junta invited rebel forces to the table to start peace talks. Rebel forces and commanders such as Maung Saungkha rejected this proposal. Saungkha claims that China, playing a role by backing these peace talks, could pave the path for a sham election. An anonymous senior official from the NUG stated that China aims to create divisions among rebel forces. They also noted that Beijing had begun urging some groups to stop fighting against the Junta and to cut all cooperation with the NUG. The NUG maintains a loose alliance with certain rebel groups across the country. Yet, they find it vital that the rebel groups overcome division and resist any influence from China. Beijing's interventions come after the rapid collapse of junta forces in Lashio.
Recently, there have been reports of instability at the top chain of junta command. According to the Security Force Monitor, from June 2017 until the February 2021 coup, the 14 regional military commands that created the foundation of the military's grasp over Myanmar saw 36 individuals serve as commanders. Since the February 2021 coup, 49 individuals served as commanders. Many rotations have occurred in areas bordering China, where the Junta has seen significant losses. According to Tony Wilson, the research director of the Security Force Monitor, many of the current serving regional commanders are commanding a regional military command for the first time. The quick rotation of commanders reflects an effort by Min Aung Hlaing, commander-in-chief of the Tatmadaw, to affirm greater control over the military.
China's involvement with Myanmar's Junta creates both opportunities and risks. Beijing's backing secures access to critical economic assets and aligns with its foreign policy of supporting regimes that align with its economic objectives. However, if the Junta fails to stabilize the region and a new democratic government does come to power, China's support for the Junta could disrupt future relations with Myanmar. Additionally, the new democratic government may give greater leverage to China's economic enemies, such as the U.S. or Japan.
Although China has economic and strategic reasons to back the Junta, the internal conflict and rebel groups' hesitancy to work with China create uncertainty about the long-term strengths of this alliance. As Myanmar's civil war continues, China faces a dangerous balancing act: safeguarding its interests while avoiding involvement in a prolonged conflict with unpredictable outcomes.
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