Imagine being 21 years old and already having voted five times in parliamentary elections, each time hoping that this vote will finally bring stability to your country. Yet, you find yourself confronted by the same familiar faces, each returning with the same old disputes, as the political deadlock persists. For the last four years, Bulgarians' regular journeys to the polls have been a tiresome routine, with each election promising reform but bringing even more uncertainty and instability. The beginning of this turbulence can be traced back to the April 2021 parliamentary elections, when new "anti-corruption" groups entered the political scene. Since then, the Bulgarian National Assembly has struggled to form a stable governing coalition, leading to rounds of parliamentary elections.
Background
The 2023 election underscored Bulgaria's persistent political deadlock, with results closely mirroring those of 2022. Boyko Borissov's conservative populist party, GERB-SDS, which was in power from 2009 to 2013 and again from 2017 until 2021, barely secured first place. GERB is widely associated with corruption issues that sparked mass protests in 2020, largely directed at Borissov’s administration. These rallies led to the development of reformist parties such as We Continue the Change and Democratic Bulgaria, which first operated independently, but last allied in an attempt to unify their respective voters and increase their chances of forming a government. Along with these parties, we saw the emergence of the far-right and ultranationalist Revival (Vazrazhdane) party, known for its vocal critique of the EU, along with the populist party There Is Such a People (ITN), recognized for its nationalist rhetoric and critiques of traditional politics, also gained seats, with ITN returning to the Assembly after failing to pass the election threshold in 2022. Establishment parties are skeptical of Revival and ITN, viewing them as disruptive forces that threaten political stability and Bulgarian connections with international organizations. Despite efforts to establish coalitions, deep-seated political rivalry prevented the development of a stable government
One attempt to break Bulgaria's political deadlock occurred in May 2023, when the conservative GERB-SDS party and the reformist coalition We Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria (PP-DB) agreed to establish a rotational government. This arrangement appointed Nikolai Denkov from PP-DB as prime minister for an initial nine-month term, with GERB’s Mariya Gabriel as his deputy and foreign affairs minister. After nine months, Gabriel was slated to take over as prime minister, marking an unprecedented power-sharing effort aimed at securing stability. However, in early 2024, the plan fell apart due to disagreements over the ministerial lineup, and Gabriel ultimately withdrew from the agreement. With no stable government formed, President Rumen Radev appointed Dimitar Glavchev, a former chairman of Bulgaria’s National Assembly and a long-standing member of GERB. Glavchev’s caretaker government aimed to keep the country stable until the new elections were scheduled for June 2024.
The June 2024 elections, taking place together with the European Parliament elections, saw a record-low turnout of 33%, marking the lowest participation since Bulgaria’s transition from communism in 1989. GERB–SDS again won the largest share of the vote, securing 69 seats out of 240, though no party or alliance gained enough seats to establish a majority in the National Assembly. Following initiatives by GERB, PP–DB, and ITN to form a government failed, the final initiative was abandoned on August 5
With no coalition in sight, Radev reappointed Dimitar Glavchev as caretaker prime minister, with the next election scheduled for October 27, 2024.
The October 27, 2024 Election
On October 27, Bulgaria held its seventh election since 2021. Voter turnout, though still low, showed a slight improvement at 38%, up from June’s 34.4%. Former Prime Minister Borissov’s GERB emerged as the frontrunner with 27% of the vote, followed by the PP–DB alliance with 14.5%, and the Revival party with 12.5%. This marked a modest gain for GERB, which had secured 24.5% in the previous election.
Despite GERB coming out on top, they fell short of securing a majority. The Movement for Rights and Freedoms: New Beginning (DPS), led by sanctioned oligarch Delyan Peevski, jumped to fourth place after a cyberattack in the run-up to the election. In fifth place was another faction of DPS, called Alliance for Rights and Freedoms, led by Ahmed Dogan, the founder of the initial DPS who keeps considerable influence. Contrary to the hopes of the Bulgarian people, the political landscape remains strongly fragmented, and a stable coalition government is as distant as before the election.
Borissov remarked on the public’s desire for “security and stability,” yet the persistent challenges of coalition-building highlight a paradox in Bulgarian politics. As noted by Daniel Smilov, director for the rule of law at the Centre for Liberal Strategies in Sofia, “almost everyone is convinced of the corruption of certain individuals,” yet these figures remain dominant in parliament. Voter sentiments and political outcomes are fundamentally tied to each other, forming a complex relationship that results in a political stalemate.
With the results of the October 27 election, Bulgaria faces yet another uncertain path toward government formation. The unresolved political tensions and recurring electoral cycles have raised concerns about governance and long-term stability in the country, leaving the future of Bulgaria’s political landscape unclear.
By Diana Yosifova
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